Oil through Hormuz
20.9 mb/d
EIA 1H25 flow estimate, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Hormuz Shock
Bypass capacity
3.5-5.5 mb/d
IEA range for pipeline alternatives; EIA cites about 4.7 mb/d from Saudi and UAE lines.
LNG exposure
~20%
IEA and EIA show around one-fifth of global LNG supply or trade exposed through the Strait.
Consumer channel
Oil Shock Pass-Through
Drag WTI proxy price to translate a crude shock into U.S. regular gasoline and direct gasoline-only CPI pressure.
WTI proxy
$98/bblRetail gas range
$4.01-$4.41/galPump midpoint
+17c/galDirect CPI impulse
+0.12 pp$4.01 low$4.21 midpoint$4.41 high
Crude input$98/bbl WTI proxy
Pump translation$4.01-$4.41/gal regular
Consumer basket+0.12 pp direct CPI level impulse
Pain gap strip
Official inflation versus lived fuel drain
Bond market sensitivity
Which bond regime is the gas shock creating?
Contained repricing
Inflation compensation is the first channel; growth and credit stress are still limited.
Nominals
Duration vulnerable if yields reprice higher.TIPS
Relative hedge if breakevens lead.High yield
Watch spreads if consumer pain rises.Key insight
Inflation can lift yields; recession fear can pull long yields down.Stress translator, not a forecast. Household profiles are illustrative and based on BLS consumer spending plus FHWA/NHTS travel patterns. Bond-market output is regime sensitivity, not a yield prediction. WTI is a proxy; Brent/RBOB usually explain pump prices better.
Country ranking
World And Top 25 Country Exposure
Ranks country sensitivity before the sector drilldown: energy reliance, LNG exposure, trade intensity, inflation pass-through, and policy buffer.
lower stressmedium stresshigher stress
Sector migration
Country x Sector Exposure Cube
Turns the country heatmap into a horizon-aware cube: switch the timeline and watch sector-country cells migrate into higher stress.
Industry watchlist
Non-Obvious Industry Projection
Stress path by horizon, with peak timing visible in-row.
Receipts
Scenario Matrix
Plain-language receipt table for the scenario horizons, evidence classes, effects, caveats, and watch signals.
| Closure | Evidence class | World-economy effect | Decision watch signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | interpolated_short_horizon | Shock is front-loaded through spot crude, LNG, tanker insurance, Gulf aviation, and inventory hoarding; prudent stress range is WTI around $90-$98, with a material but not full-quarter global growth drag. Do not annualize the full one-quarter GDP hit over a short bridge horizon; label the estimate as interpolation. | Tanker crossings stay near zero for more than 30 days after the report date. |
| 3 months | direct_model_path | WTI around $98 in the impact quarter and global real GDP growth down 2.9 percentage points annualized, followed by rebound if shipments resume. Severe but partly reversible; LNG and insurance costs can lag reopening. | IEA/EIA emergency stock releases and confirmed Gulf production shut-ins. |
| 6 months | direct_model_path | Dallas Fed two-quarter closure path: WTI around $98 then $115; global growth remains negative for two quarters before rebound if shipments resume, with Q4/Q4 global growth about 0.3 percentage points below baseline. Asia faces the largest direct import shock; Europe competes for replacement LNG and distillates. | WTI sustains above $110 while LNG cargo cancellation persists. |
| 12 months | extrapolated_after_three_quarters | Dallas Fed three-quarter path reaches WTI around $132 and Q4/Q4 global growth 1.3 percentage points below baseline; the final quarter is stress extrapolation. Do not claim exact full-year GDP loss; recession risk rises through demand destruction, rationing, fiscal transfers, and trade rerouting. | Closure persists into a third quarter with no credible reopening corridor. |
Method
Model Notes
- Country scores are directional stress indicators, not GDP forecasts. Higher values mean greater likely sensitivity to oil, LNG, trade, inflation, and policy-buffer channels.
- Sector scores show where the same shock is most likely to surface first. They combine commodity exposure, shipping intensity, margin sensitivity, and policy offset capacity.
- Partial horizons are labeled as interpolation. Published quarterly model paths receive higher confidence than two-month and four-month bridges.
Evidence
Sources
- EIA Today in Energy, June 16 2025: Hormuz oil and LNG exposure.
- EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints: 1H25 flows and bypass capacity.
- IEA Strait of Hormuz 2026 factsheet: oil, LNG, and alternative routes.
- EIA April 7 2026 press release: April STEO closure assumptions, Brent risk premium, production shut-ins.
- Dallas Fed March 20 2026: one-, two-, and three-quarter closure model paths.
- Dallas Fed April 17 2026: U.S. inflation implications of the closure.
- FRED/EIA DCOILWTICO and GASREGW, latest observations through April 20 2026.
- BLS CPI-U Table 2, March 2026: gasoline relative importance.
- BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey and FHWA/NHTS: household fuel-spending and travel-pattern profile assumptions.
- FRED Treasury, breakeven, and high-yield spread series: bond-market sensitivity surfaces.
- EIA Gasoline Explained: retail gasoline price components and crude-to-gasoline rule of thumb.
- IMF April 2026 WEO and regional briefing: global growth risks, logistics, insurance, and financial-condition channels.
- IEA April 24 2026 gas market update: LNG supply shock and price volatility.